>> Laura: THANK YOU, LOU.

JOINING ME AROUND THE TABLE FOR THIS THREE-PART CONVERSATION ARE SOUTHWESTERN FORESTER MICHIKO MARTIN, SANTA FE NATIONAL FOREST SUPERVISOR SHAUN SANCHEZ, AND DENNIS CARRIL, SANTA FE NATIONAL FOREST FUELS PROGRAM MANAGER.

THANK YOU ALL FOR JOINING ME.

>> Martin: THANK YOU FOR HAVING US.

>> Laura: SO THERE IS NO EASY WAY TO START THIS CONVERSATION, SO LET'S JUST JUMP IN.

MICHIKO, THREE PRESCRIBED FIRE PROJECTS IN NEW MEXICO IN 2022 THAT TURNED INTO THREE WILDFIRES.

LET'S START WITH THE HERMIT'S PEAK/CALF CANYON FIRE.

341,000 ACRES.

WHAT WENT WRONG LAST WINTER AND SPRING?

>> Martin: LAST YEAR WAS AN ABSOLUTELY DEVASTATING YEAR FOR WILDFIRES AND FIRES HERE IN NEW MEXICO, CERTAINLY A YEAR THAT WE WOULD NEVER, EVER WANT TO REPEAT.

AND YOU'RE RIGHT THAT WE HAD THREE PRESCRIBED FIRES THAT ESCAPED UNDER CIRCUMSTANCES, WHICH -- WELL, OF COURSE, HINDSIGHT IS ALWAYS 20/20.

BUT WHEN WE APPLY THAT HINDSIGHT, CIRCUMSTANCES THAT WERE JUST ABSOLUTELY UNPREDICTABLE.

MY COLLEAGUE DENNIS HERE IS AN EXPERT, A LONG-TIME EXPERT IN FIRE AND FIRE BEHAVIOR, ALL THINGS FIRE, AND I'D LOVE TO INVITE HIM, LAURA, IF THAT'S ALL RIGHT, TO TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN HERMIT'S PEAK/CALF CANYON AND CERRO PELADO.

>> Laura: YES, DENNIS.

>> Carril: THANKS LAURA, AND THANKS MICHIKO.

FIRST, I'M GOING TO START OUT BY JUST MY APOLOGIES AND SYMPATHIES TO THE PEOPLE IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR EVERYTHING THAT THEY WENT THROUGH WITH THE TRAGEDY OF THESE FIRES.

I NEED TO SAY THAT.

AND I'VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS.

LIKE MICHIKO SAID, I'VE BEEN A PART OF THIS FOR A LONG TIME.

I'VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS FOR A LONG TIME.

THE STORY THAT COMES TO MIND, AND I'LL BE BRIEF, IS HOW I STARTED MY CAREER.

I STARTED IN THE EARLY 2000s, IN 2002.

THE PEOPLE THAT WERE BEFORE ME AND KIND OF OVERLAPPING WITH ME, THE LARGEST FIRE THOSE FOLKS SAW WAS LIKE 5,000-10,000 ACRES.

IT WAS A BIG FIRE.

THAT WAS THE SLIDE SHOW THAT THEY HAD OF THEIR EXPERIENCES, THAT THEY HAD IN THEIR MIND.

AND THEN MOVING FORWARD INTO 2000 AND THE DROUGHT.

IT STARTED IN THE LATE NINETIES IN THE WEST, AND IS STILL PERPETUATING INTO NOW.

THE EXPERIENCE THAT THEY HAD, THEY GOT SURPRISED.

THEY WENT THROUGH AN EVOLUTION, THROUGH A PORTAL, A LEARNING LESSON WITH CERRO GRANDE AND THE TRAGEDY THAT HAPPENED HERE 23 YEARS AGO.

MY CAREER HAS BEEN IN DROUGHT FOR 20 PLUS YEARS.

MY EXPERIENCES AND MY EXPERIENCE WITH THE FIRE BEHAVIOR ARE AS SUCH THAT THAT'S HOW YOU BASE YOUR ACTIONS OF OFF, WHETHER IT'S WILDFIRE, PRESCRIBED FIRE, OR PLANNED.

I FEEL WHAT WE WENT THROUGH THIS LAST YEAR, AND THEN NOT JUST LAST YEAR, BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST FEW YEARS, THE SLIDE SHOW IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH, AND WHAT WE'RE EXPERIENCING OUT THERE UNDER PRESCRIBED FIRE CONDITIONS, UNDER WILDFIRE CONDITIONS, WE'RE GOING THROUGH ANOTHER PORTAL.

WE'RE GOING THROUGH ANOTHER EVOLUTION.

JUST LIKE WE LEARNED FROM CERRO GRANDE AND ALL THE CHANGES THAT CAME WITH THAT, WE'RE VERY SERIOUS ABOUT WHAT CHANGES NEED TO COME MOVING FORWARD IN THE TIMING OF THE WILDFIRE CRISIS STRATEGY AND THE TRAGEDY THAT HAPPENED HERE IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.

CONDITIONS ARE CHANGING.

FIRE IS VERY DYNAMIC.

WE NEED TO LEARN FROM IT.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEARN FROM IT.

BUT WE DON'T -- WE NEED TO KEEP BUILDING OUR EXPERIENCE, AND IT'S BEEN VERY DIFFERENT.

LAST YEAR, I SAW FIRE BEHAVIOR I'VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN MY CAREER.

>> Laura: SO I REMEMBER ON APRIL 6th -- YOU KNOW, LAST SPRING WAS HORRIBLE.

EVEN HERE IN ALBUQUERQUE.

DRY, WINDY.

AND I REMEMBER ON APRIL 6th WHEN I GOT THAT PRESS RELEASE FROM THE FOREST SERVICE SAYING THAT LAS DISPENSAS HAD BEEN DECLARED THE HERMIT'S PEAK WILDFIRE.

CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THOSE DAYS AND WHAT THAT FELT LIKE AND WHAT WAS HAPPENING?

>> Carril: YES, ABSOLUTELY.

SO IT WAS A VERY INTERESTING SPRING.

WE HAD A LOT OF LATE ROUNDS OF MOISTURE THAT BUILT UP THE SNOWPACK AND BROUGHT IN MOISTURE THROUGH FEBRUARY AND MARCH.

THE DISTRICT WAS LOOKING AT PARTICULAR WINDOWS FOR THIS LAS DISPENSAS AREA, AND WITHIN -- I THINK IT WAS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF MARCH AND TOWARDS THE END OF MARCH, WITHIN TWO WEEKS OF APRIL 6th, THERE WAS MOISTURE THERE AND IT WAS TOO WET TO DO THINGS.

I THINK WHAT REALLY CAUGHT PEOPLE BY SURPRISE, AND IT'S REFLECTED IN SOME OF THE DATA, THE STATS FROM THE WEATHER, IS HOW RAPIDLY THINGS CHANGED AND CAME INTO A HOT, DRY, WINDY PATTERN.

THIS IS APRIL 6th, YOU MENTIONED.

IT'S THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH.

THEY'RE TRYING TO CATCH THIS PRESCRIBED FIRE WINDOW SOON AFTER THESE MOISTURE EVENTS TO MEET OBJECTIVES AND BE BETWEEN, LIKE WE ARE IN THE SPRING, BETWEEN WINTER AND SUMMER.

AND PRESCRIBE FIRE SEASON AND THEN ENTERING INTO FIRE SEASON, IT'S ALWAYS A CHALLENGING TIME.

THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WE EXPERIENCED, THE DRIEST ON RECORD FOR APRIL AND MAY, AND THE FOURTH HOTTEST IN APRIL AND MAY, IT LEADS TO THAT TRANSITION OF THAT MOISTURE.

WHAT WE'RE DEALING WITH IS WEATHER, RIGHT, WEATHER CHANGES DAY-TO-DAY, AND THESE FOLKS HAD A THREE TO FOUR DAY FORECAST.

THAT'S TYPICALLY WHAT WE DEPEND ON FOR A WINDOW, TO GET A TWO, THREE DAY PROJECT DONE.

BUT WHAT COULDN'T BE PREDICTED WAS WHAT WAS COMING, WHAT WE DIDN'T KNOW WAS COMING IN THE REST OF APRIL AND THE REST OF MAY, AND HOW RAPIDLY THINGS DETERIORATED WITH THOSE CONDITIONS.

>> Laura: SO SHAUN, EVERYONE KNOWS THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING.

I MEAN, EVEN FOR SOMEONE LIKE ME WHO HAS ONLY BEEN IN NEW MEXICO A FEW DECADES, I FEEL THE FORESTS ARE DIFFERENT.

I SEE HOW THEY ARE DIFFERENT.

THE SCIENCE CERTAINLY IS TELLING US A LOT ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING.

BUT IN 2022, DO YOU THINK THAT THE AGENCY WAS TAKING CLIMATE CHANGE SERIOUSLY?

>> Sanchez: I BELIEVE WHEN WE LOOK BACK, AND GOING BACK TO APRIL 5TH, WE DIDN'T KNOW WHAT WE DIDN'T KNOW.

AND THAT WAS ACTUALLY ONE OF THE FINDINGS FROM THE REVIEW THAT OCCURRED, IS THAT WE COULDN'T STAY COMPLACENT OR REST ON OUR LAURELS, THAT WE NEEDED TO REALLY LOOK AT THE CHANGING CLIMATE, AS DENNIS DESCRIBED, AND JUST THE EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND HOW THAT IS BEING DRIVEN BY A CHANGING CLIMATE.

AND SO IT'S IMPORTANT FOR US TO LOOK AT THAT, AND THAT'S ONE OF THE KEY THINGS THAT WE'RE DOING DIFFERENT NOW IN OUR PLANNING, IS MAKING SURE THAT WE'RE HAVING THE MOST RECENT SCIENCE, THE MOST UP-TO-DATE MODELING, THAT WE'RE REALLY PUTTING EVERY TYPE OF PROTECTIVE SERVICE INTO PLACE AND HAVING THAT FOR SITUATIONAL AWARENESS.

BECAUSE YOU'RE RIGHT, OUR FORESTS ARE IN CRISIS.

ONE HUNDRED YEARS OF FIRE SUPPRESSION, AND THEN YOU ADD ON TOP OF THAT THESE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE MAKING IT HOTTER, DRIER, IT'S THIS RECIPE FOR DISASTER.

AND UNFORTUNATELY, THAT'S WHAT WE SAW LAST YEAR.

>> Laura: YEAH.

SO THE CERRO PELADO FIRE IN THE JEMEZ ALSO IGNITED IN THE SPRING OF 2022, AND THE INVESTIGATION THAT WAS JUST RELEASED IN JULY SHOWED THAT WILDFIRE ALSO GREW FROM A PRESCRIBED BURN, A PILE BURN, THAT HAD BEEN DONE IN THE WINTER OF 2022.

WHAT WENT WRONG THERE?

>> Sanchez: I THINK THAT'S A GREAT EXAMPLE OF NOT REALIZING, AS DENNIS DESCRIBED, THE EXTREMELY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AGAIN, GOING BACK TO LIKE APRIL 5th, YOU KNOW, BEFORE THAT WE WOULDN'T HAVE THOUGHT THAT ONE OF OUR PRESCRIBED PILE BURNS THAT WE HAD COMPLETED IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, THAT IT WOULD POP UP IN APRIL.

>> Martin: AFTER MANY SNOW EVENTS.

>> Sanchez: AFTER NUMEROUS SNOW EVENTS ON TOP OF IT, IT WOULDN'T POP UP.

BUT IT POPPED UP BECAUSE OF THESE EXTREME CLIMATE CONDITIONS.

YOU KNOW, GETTING TO THE WINDS, LIKE EVERYBODY KNOWS HOW WINDY IT WAS.

I REMEMBER SITTING IN ON THE HERMIT'S PEAK/CALF CANYON BRIEFINGS THAT WERE GOING ON, AND THE INCIDENT METEOROLOGISTS AND THE FIRE BEHAVIOR ANALYSTS ARE SAYING, THERE WILL BE TEXTBOOKS AND HISTORY BOOKS WRITTEN ABOUT THESE DAYS RIGHT NOW.

THIS IS UNIMAGINABLE.

WE COULD HAVE NEVER IMAGINED.

ADDING TO THE HOTTEST, DRIEST APRIL-MAY, IT WAS ALSO -- YOU KNOW, WE HAD RECORD RED FLAG WARNINGS AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

AND THESE MEASURES, AND THEN SEEING KIND OF THE EXTREME GOING FROM, LIKE DENNIS SAID, IN MARCH OF HAVING SNOW, AND THEN EXTREME DRYING, AND WE WENT TO AN EXTREMELY WET PERIOD.

THAT TRANSITION FROM THAT EXTREME DRY TO THAT EXTREME WET PERIOD, THAT'S THE MOST EXTREME TRANSITION FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THAT THEY HAVEN'T SEEN IN 130 YEARS, SINCE THESE RECORDS HAVE BEEN GATHERED AND MONITORED.

THE WORLD IS VERY, VERY DIFFERENT TODAY THAN WHAT WE THOUGHT IT WAS ON APRIL 5th.

>> Laura: MICHIKO, WHY DID THESE INVESTIGATIONS TAKE SO LONG?

LIKE WITH CERRO PELADO, IT WAS ALMOST A YEAR AND A HALF LATER THAT WE FOUND OUT, THE PUBLIC FOUND OUT WHAT HAD HAPPENED.

>> Martin: OH, WOW.

WHY DO THEY TAKE SO LONG?

WELL, I CAN PROMISE YOU THAT WE'RE VERY, VERY THOROUGH, AND WE TRY TO TAKE AS LEAST AMOUNT OF TIME AS POSSIBLE.

ONE OF THE LEARNINGS THAT CAME OUT OF THE PRESCRIBED FIRE PAUSE WAS THAT WE NEED TO BE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE WAY THAT WE INVESTIGATE ORIGIN AND CAUSES OF FIRE, AS WELL AS ESCAPE FIRES.

AND SO WE GO THROUGH A VERY LONG DETAILED PROCESS JUST TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE GETTING EVERYTHING RIGHT, BECAUSE WE UNDERSTAND THE LOSS, YOU KNOW, THE PAIN, THE TRAUMA, AND WE WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT WHEN WE PRESENT OUR FINDINGS TO THE PUBLIC, THAT THEY CAN TRUST THOSE FINDINGS, BECAUSE IT'S ONE STEP THAT WE HAVE TO MOVE FORWARD TO TRY TO REGAIN THAT TRUST, IS BY DOING THE INVESTIGATION VERY THOROUGHLY AND PUTTING OUT INFORMATION THAT THE PUBLIC CAN TRUST, AND THAT WE'RE NOT GOING TO COME BACK THREE WEEKS LATER AND SAY, OH, YOU KNOW, ACTUALLY WE UNCOVERED ANOTHER, WE OVERTURNED ANOTHER ROCK AND FOUND SOME NEW INFORMATION.

SO I DO APOLOGIZE, BECAUSE I KNOW THAT WHEN WE HAVE A DEVASTATING EVENT LIKE THIS, THE PUBLIC WANTS ANSWERS AND THEY WANT THEM FAST, AND WE CERTAINLY UNDERSTAND THAT.

AND WE ALSO TAKE VERY SERIOUSLY OUR DUTY TO ENSURE THAT THE INFORMATION THAT WE PUT OUT CAN BE TRUSTED AND THAT WE CAN MAKE GOOD DECISIONS FROM THEM.

>> Laura: SO THE BLACK FIRE IN THE GILA, 325,000 ACRES LAST YEAR, WAS ALSO HUMAN CAUSED.

WHAT DO WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENED THERE?

DO WE KNOW ANYTHING?

>> Martin: , OH, GOSH.

HELP ME OUT SHAUN AND DENNIS.

>> Carril: I WAS ON THE BLACK FIRE WITH ONE OF THE INCIDENT MANAGEMENT TEAMS, AND I'LL TELL YOU A QUICK COOL -- AND IT MAY NOT BE COOL, AND AN INTERESTING ANECDOTAL STORY.

I STARTED ON THE WILDERNESS RANGER DISTRICT WHERE THAT FIRE WAS IN 2002.

THE FIRST WILDFIRE I HAD EVER BEEN ON IN MY CAREER WAS CALLED THE BLACK FIRE.

WE CAUGHT IT AT 42 ACRES OR SOMETHING.

THE REST OF THE NEXT TWO SUMMERS, I WAS OUT THERE DOING INITIAL ATTACK IN THESE MOUNTAINS, AND COME THERE 20 YEARS LATER, I'M IN MY DISTRICT, MY OLD BOSS IS STILL THERE, AND WE'RE ON THE BLACK FIRE AGAIN THAT'S NEAR THE STATE RECORD IN SIZE.

AND ALL THOSE FIRES THAT WE HANDLED AND SUPPRESSED JUST HAVE BEEN BURNT OVER, PROBABLY MAYBE A COUPLE OF TIMES.

IT'S AN INTERESTING PERSPECTIVE FOR ME 20 YEARS LATER ABOUT WHAT I WAS DOING IN THE FIRST PART OF MY CAREER, VERY EXCITING AND ALL THIS STUFF, BUT NOW AS I GET OLDER AND I SEE THIS, IT'S LIKE, TO ALL THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THROUGH CHANGE WITH CONDITIONS, CLIMATE AND WEATHER IN THE EXTREMES, THAT'S WHAT STRUCK ME.

AND THEN DEALING WITH THIS VERY LARGE FIRE WITH AN INCIDENT MANAGEMENT TEAM OVER THAT KIND OF GROUND IS VERY CHALLENGING.

I DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT THE IGNITION, BUT HAVING BEEN THERE PREVIOUSLY AND THEN LAST SUMMER ON IT, IT WAS A BEAST.

IT WAS VERY DIFFICULT TERRAIN AND VERY CHALLENGING TO DEAL WITH, JUST LIKE HERMIT'S AND EVERYTHING ELSE.

TWO DIFFERENT IGNITION SOURCES, SAME RESULTS IN A BIG WAY.

>> Laura: WELL, THANK YOU ALL.

WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK.

UP NEXT, WE'LL TALK ABOUT NEW PROTOCOLS FOR PRESCRIBED FIRE.