Laura: PARK WILLIAMS, WELCOME.

THANKS FOR JOINING ME ON NEW MEXICO In FOCUS.

Parker: YEAH, YOU BET.

Laura: SO YOU'RE A  BIOCLIMATOLOGIST.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

Parker: SOMEBODY WHO CAN'T DECIDE WHETHER THEY  LIKE TO STUDY THE LIFE MORE OR THE CLIMATE MORE.

CLIMATE AFFECTS LIFE, AND LIFE AFFECTS CLIMATE.

VEGETATION LIFE IS SOMETHING I'M REALLY INTERESTED IN,  AND THAT ESPECIALLY HAS A BIG EFFECT ON CLIMATE.

AND SO I STUDY BOTH AND CALL MYSELF A BIOCLIMATOLOGIST.

Laura: LET'S START WITH THE DROUGHT THAT'S KIND OF  BEEN MOVING AROUND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST FOR THE LAST 20  YEARS IN SORT OF DIFFERENT INTENSITIES AND DIFFERENT  PLACES OVER TIME.

DROUGHT IS A PART OF LIFE IN  THE SOUTHWEST, IN GENERAL, BUT THIS DROUGHT HAS BEEN  PARTICULARLY SEVERE, EVEN WHEN YOU LOOK BACK OVER LONG  RECORDS.

CAN YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT  ABOUT WHY THIS DROUGHT IS SO SEVERE COMPARED TO ANYTHING  WE'VE CERTAINLY EVER EXPERIENCED BEFORE?

Parker: YEAH.

SO YES, LIKE YOU JUST SAID,  THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO HAVE BEEN IN  NEAR PERPETUAL DROUGHT FOR THE LAST 22 YEARS NOW.

DRY CONDITIONS REALLY SET IN IN THE '99-2000, AND IT'S  2021 NOW, SO WE'RE IN OUR 22nd YEAR.

IT HASN'T BEEN DRY FOR 22 STRAIGHT YEARS IN EVERY  INDIVIDUAL PLACE, BUT IF YOU LOOK OVER THE WHOLE WESTERN  U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO, THEN OF THE LAST 22 YEARS,  18 OF THEM HAVE BEEN DRIER THAN AVERAGE.

AVERAGE WOULD BE NINE BEING DRIER THAN AVERAGE, AND THE  OTHER NINE OR SO BEING WETTER THAN AVERAGE.

SO THAT SEEMS LIKE A PRETTY UNIQUE SITUATION,  INTERESTING AND CONSEQUENTIAL.

WE'VE SEEN BIG CONSEQUENCES, OF COURSE.

WE'VE SEEN BIG DECLINES IN OUR BIGGEST RESERVOIRS, LAKE  MEAD AND POWELL.

WE'VE SEEN BIG BARK BEETLE  OUTBREAKS, GIGANTIC INCREASE IN FOREST FIRE ACTIVITY,  UNSUSTAINABLE DRILLING OF GROUNDWATER, ESPECIALLY IN  CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL VALLEY.

SO THESE THINGS ALL SAY TO  US THAT SOMETHING ABNORMAL IS GOING ON, BUT IT'S HARD  TO KNOW HOW ABNORMAL BECAUSE OUR CLIMATE RECORDS ONLY GO  BACK FOR ABOUT 120 YEARS, AND THEY START BECOMING LESS  RELIABLE THE FURTHER BACK WE GO.

LUCKILY, WE HAVE TREE RING RECORDS FROM ALL OVER  WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FROM TENS OF THOUSANDS OF TREES  THAT GO BACK FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS, OR SOMETIMES EVEN  THOUSANDS OF YEARS, AND BECAUSE WESTERN NORTH  AMERICA IS GENERALLY A PRETTY DRY PLACE WHERE  FORESTS ARE OFTENTIMES LIVING ON THE BOUNDARY  BETWEEN JUST WET ENOUGH TO SURVIVE AND TOO DRY TO  SURVIVE, THEN THEIR ANNUAL GROWTH RINGS -- THESE ARE  THE TREE RINGS THAT YOU SEE ON THE TREE TRUNK.

THESE ANNUAL RINGS ON THE TREE, THEY'RE OBVIOUSLY  ANNUAL, THEY GROW ONCE A YEAR, AND BECAUSE TREES ARE  GENERALLY STRESSED OUT BY WATER LIMITATION, THEN THE  SKINNY ANNUAL GROWTH RINGS MEAN YEARS OF BAD GROWTH,  AND THE THICK ANNUAL GROWTH RINGS MEAN RECORDS OF GOOD  GROWTH.

AND IF WE MEASURE ALL THE  GROWTH RINGS FROM ALL THESE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF TREES,  WHICH SCIENTISTS HAVE DONE OVER THE LAST CENTURY, AND  YOU TAKE ALL OF THESE TREES AND AVERAGE THEM TOGETHER,  THEN WHAT YOU GET IS A REMARKABLY ACCURATE RECORD  OF SOIL MOISTURE THAT GOES BACK FOR OVER 1200 YEARS.

FROM THOSE RECORDS OF SOIL MOISTURE THAT GO BACK 1200  YEARS, WE CAN SEE THAT ACTUALLY GIANT DROUGHTS ARE  PRETTY COMMON.

ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT 800  A.D. TO 1600 A.D., THERE WERE THESE REPEATED GIANT  DROUGHT EVENTS THAT SCIENTISTS IN THE 1990s  STARTED CALLING MEGA DROUGHTS.

THEY WERE CALLED MEGA DROUGHTS BECAUSE THEY WERE  DIFFERENT FROM ANYTHING THAT MODERN SOCIETY HAD HAD TO  DEAL WITH.

THE 1800s AND 1900s  HADN'T SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THE MEGA DROUGHTS.

THE MEGA DROUGHTS ARE REALLY SEVERE FOR DECADES ON END,  MORE SEVERE AND LONGER LASTING THAN MOST LIKELY  HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE IS REALLY ESTABLISHED TO  HANDLE.

THE QUESTION WAS, HOW BAD IS  THIS RECENT DROUGHT OR THIS CURRENT DROUGHT COMPARED TO  THOSE MEGA DROUGHTS, AND THAT'S ONE OF THE QUESTIONS  I'VE BEEN WORKING TO ANSWER.

Laura: SO HOW DOES  PRECIPITATION AND HOW DOES TEMPERATURE, HOW DO THOSE  TWO THINGS FACTOR INTO WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW?

Parker: WELL, THE WATER BALANCE IS ACTUALLY A PRETTY  SIMPLE THING.

WE CAN THINK ABOUT THE LAND  AS A BIG BUCKET.

PRECIPITATION WORKS TO FILL  UP THE BUCKET, AND THEN VARIABLES LIKE TEMPERATURE  AND HUMIDITY AND WIND SPEED AND HOW MUCH SUNLIGHT THERE  IS WORK TO EMPTY OUT THE BUCKET.

WHEN THE BUCKET GETS TOO FULL AND YOU GET EXTRA  PRECIPITATION, IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER, BECAUSE IT  RUNS OFF, JUST LIKE IT DOES IN THE REAL WORLD.

AND IF YOU EMPTY OUT THE BUCKET AND THEN CONTINUE TO  TRY AND EVAPORATE WATER, THERE'S NOTHING LEFT.

SO USING CLIMATE DATA, WE CAN ACTUALLY MAKE  CALCULATIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH WATER IS IN THE BUCKET IN  ANY INDIVIDUAL PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AT ANY  GIVEN TIME.

SO WE USE CLIMATE DATA TO  MAKE CALCULATIONS OF THE MOISTURE BALANCE, AND WHEN  WE DO THAT, WHAT WE SEE IS THAT THE LAST 22 YEARS, WHEN  WE'VE RECONSTRUCTED THESE BUCKET MOISTURE BALANCE  CALCULATIONS BACK FOR 1200 YEARS, WE SEE THAT THE LAST  22 YEARS IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA ARE AS DRY OR DRIER  THAN ANY OTHER 22-YEAR PERIOD IN AT LEAST THE LAST  1200 YEARS.

BECAUSE A LOT OF THIS IS  DONE WITH MATHEMATICS, BECAUSE WE'RE MAKING THESE  CALCULATIONS OF HOW MUCH WATER IS IN THE BUCKET USING  MATH, WE CAN THEN DELVE INTO THE HYPOTHETICAL WORLD WHERE  WE SAY, WELL, WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IF GLOBAL  WARMING HADN'T OCCURRED?

AND SO WE CAN RECALCULATE  HOW MUCH WATER WOULD BE IN THE BUCKET TODAY IF THE  GLOBE HADN'T WARMED OVER THE LAST CENTURY.

AND WHAT WE SEE IS BECAUSE PART OF THIS DROUGHT HAS  BEEN NATURALLY DRIVEN, WE STILL WOULD BE IN A DROUGHT  RIGHT NOW EVEN WITHOUT GLOBAL WARMING, BUT THE  DROUGHT WOULD PROBABLY BE ONLY ABOUT HALF AS SEVERE,  MAYBE 60% OF ITS SEVERITY NOW.

THAT MEANS THAT THIS RESULT THAT THE CURRENT 22-YEAR  DROUGHT IS COMPETING WITH THE MEGA DROUGHTS FOR DRIEST  PERIOD IN THE LAST 1200 YEARS, THAT RESULT IS REALLY  ESTABLISHED OR IS POSSIBLE ONLY BECAUSE OF TWO THINGS.

ONE, 22 YEARS OF BAD LUCK.

BUT ALSO, 22 YEARS OF  ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WORK TO ENHANCE EVAPORATION  RATES.

WHEN THERE'S WATER IN THE  SOIL, THAT WATER STICKS AROUND LESS,   STICKS AROUND FOR A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME  BECAUSE THE WORLD IS WARMER.

Laura: SO I WANT TO  MIGRATE KIND OF INTO FIRE NEXT.

IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, HOW HAS FIRE SEASON  CHANGED?

AND KIND OF WHAT TIME PERIOD  ARE WE TALKING ABOUT?

Parker: OVER THE LAST  CENTURY, THE FIRE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST HAS INCREASED,  BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THAT INCREASE HAS OCCURRED  SINCE THE LATE '70s OR EARLY 1980s.

OUR REALLY GOOD RECORDS OF FIRE START IN 1984, AND  THAT'S WHEN WE START HAVING REALLY GOOD HIGH-RESOLUTION  SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT ALLOWS US TO MAP WHERE  EXACTLY EACH FIRE OCCURRED.

AND WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS  ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, WHERE WE'VE GOT  REALLY GOOD DATA GOING BACK TO 1984, THAT OVER THE LAST  NEARLY FOUR DECADES, WE'VE SEEN THE ANNUAL AREA BURNED  INCREASE BY OVER 300%.

OVER 300% MEANS THREE TO  FOUR TIMES AS MUCH FIRE BURNING AS MUCH AREA, LAND  AREA BURNING TODAY AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN AN AVERAGE  YEAR IN THE 1970s OR 1980s.

BUT IF YOU LOOK DEEPER AND SEE WHERE THESE INCREASES  ARE REALLY OCCURRING, THEN WE SEE THAT THEY'RE MOSTLY  OCCURRING IN FORESTED AREAS.

FOREST FIRE AREA IS  INCREASED BY OVER 1300% SINCE THE MID 1980s,  WHEREAS OUTSIDE OF FORESTED AREA, THE INCREASE IN BURNED  AREA HAS BEEN ABOUT 165%.

AN INCREASE IN 165% IS STILL  A BIG DEAL.

IT MEANS MORE THAN A  DOUBLING OF AREA BURNED IN NONFORESTED AREA, AND IF THE  FOREST FIRE TREND WASN'T SO HUGE, THEN THAT'S WHAT WE  WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT, IS THE DOUBLING OR TRIPLING OF  BURNED AREA IN NONFORESTED AREAS.

BUT FOREST FIRE HAS REALLY STOLEN THE SHOW.

SO THE QUESTION IS, WHY IS THIS OCCURRING?

WHY ARE FOREST FIRES GETTING SO MUCH BIGGER?

THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT THEY'RE ACTUALLY NOT  GETTING THAT MUCH MORE FREQUENT.

THERE'S ACTUALLY NOT MANY MORE FOREST FIRES TODAY THAN  THERE WERE IN THE 1980s.

THE THING IS THAT THE FOREST  FIRES THAT ARE OCCURRING TODAY ARE WAY BIGGER THAN  THE FOREST FIRES IN THE 1980s, AND THAT TREND WAS  ALREADY GETTING CONCERNING TEN YEARS AGO.

WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS ARE REALLY  BLOWING PEOPLE'S MINDS.

IN 2020, THE AREA BURNED IN  2020 ALMOST TRIPLED THE  PREVIOUS RECORD IN CALIFORNIA.

THE PREVIOUS RECORD HAD JUST BEEN SET IN 2017 AND 2018,  AND THAT SEEMED EXTREME AT THE TIME, AND THEN 2021 HAS  ALMOST REACHED THE 2020 LEVEL.

FOREST FIRE IS ONE OF THESE THINGS THAT IS INCREASING  NOT IN SMALL INCREMENTAL BITS, BUT EXPONENTIALLY.

AND WHEN WE COMPARE THE ANNUAL AREA BURNED OF FOREST  TO CLIMATE, IT'S REALLY CLEAR THAT THE MAIN DRIVER  IS A DRYING OF THE CLIMATE.

AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS GOTTEN  WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE LAST FOUR DECADES, THE FIRE  GROWTH HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED IN A VERY  PREDICTABLE WAY.

EVEN THOUGH 2020 WAS SUCH AN  EXTREME OUTLIER, IF YOU JUST LOOK AT HOW MUCH BURNED  EVERY YEAR, THAT OUTLIER WAS ACTUALLY TOTALLY PREDICTABLE  BASED ON HOW WARM AND DRY IT WAS IN 2020, AND 2021 IS THE  SAME STORY.

Laura: IT FEELS TO ME  LIKE WE ARE ON A TRAJECTORY, AND THERE MIGHT BE GOOD  YEARS AND BAD YEARS, BUT I'M WONDERING IF YOU CAN TALK A  LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT WE NEED TO BE THINKING ABOUT  FOR THE FUTURE.

Parker: YEAH, FROM THE  PERSPECTIVE OF DROUGHT AND FIRE, I THINK THAT HOPE IS  INCREASINGLY A BAD THING TO LEAN ON.

HOPE IS A GREAT THING TO USE WHEN WE'RE GAMBLING WHEN THE  ODDS ARE 50/50, BUT IF YOU ESTABLISH A SYSTEM OF HOPE  IN A WORLD WHERE THE DICE ARE GETTING INCREASINGLY  LOADED, THEN HOPE BECOMES LESS AND LESS REALISTIC.

BUT IT'S STILL CLEAR THAT WE'RE RELYING FAR TOO MUCH  ON HOPE.

THE FOREST SERVICE THIS YEAR  GAVE US A GREAT EXAMPLE OF THIS WHERE FOREST FIRES WERE  SO EXTENSIVE THIS SUMMER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA  AND OREGON AND WASHINGTON AND SOME OF THE NORTHERN  ROCKY AREAS THAT THE CHIEF OF THE FOREST SERVICE  DECLARED THAT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR, THE FOREST  SERVICE WOULD NOT BE DOING ANY MORE CONTROLLED BURNS OR  MANAGEMENT OF WILDFIRE IN WAYS THAT ALLOW WILDFIRE TO  BURN IN ECOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE WAYS.

WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THE FOREST SERVICE DECIDED THEY  WERE SO SPREAD THIN ON FIGHTING FIRES, THEY NEEDED  TO JUST FOCUS ON FIGHTING FIRES AND NOT USE ANY  RESOURCES TOWARD USING FIRE TO BURN FORESTED LANDSCAPES  IN ORDER TO EAT AWAY AT THIS FIRE DEFICIT THAT WE'VE BEEN  BUILDING FOR THE LAST CENTURY BY FIGHTING FIRES.

MANY OF THE FORESTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE  ARTIFICIALLY DENSE BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY  FIGHTING FIRES FOR A CENTURY, MEANING THE AREAS  THAT COULD HAVE BURNED IN THE 1950s AND '60s  DIDN'T AND TODAY THERE'S MORE FUEL ON THE LANDSCAPE  THAN THERE WOULD BE OTHERWISE, SO THAT WHEN THE  INEVITABLE FIRE COMES TODAY IN A WARMER WORLD, THEN THAT  FIRE IS MUCH MORE LIKELY TO BURN VERY INTENSELY.

THAT STORY IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN SOUTHWESTERN FORESTS  WHERE BEFORE WE STARTED MESSING WITH FIRES BY  SUPPRESSING THEM SO MUCH, FIRES WERE COMING THROUGH  PONDEROSA PINE FORESTS IN THE SOUTHWEST EVERY 5 TO 15  YEARS, ACCORDING TO TREE RING RECORDS.

WHEN WE KEEP FIRE FROM VISITING A PONDEROSA PINE  FOREST FOR A CENTURY, THEN THAT MEANS WE ARE THROWING  THAT FOREST COMPLETELY OUT OF WHACK AND SETTING IT UP  FOR A MAJOR FIRE DISASTER.

SO WHY WOULD WE NOT DO  CONTROLLED BURNS AS A MEANS OF TRYING TO PRIORITIZE, OR  MORE EASILY PRIORITIZING FIREFIGHTING?

WELL, THE REASON WAS BECAUSE THEY SAY THAT RESOURCES WERE  TOO SPREAD THIN FIGHTING FIRES.

BUT THAT KIND OF IMPLIES THIS LEVEL OF HOPE THAT NEXT  IS GOING TO BE BETTER, AND NEXT YEAR WE CAN THEN DO THE  CONTROLLED BURNS, WHICH IS NOT WISE, BECAUSE AS WE GO  ALONG IN TIME, YES, NEXT YEAR COULD BE WETTER, BUT  EVERY YEAR THAT WE GO INTO THE FUTURE, THE CHANCES THAT  THAT YEAR IS WETTER GO DOWN AND DOWN AND DOWN IN THE  WEST, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST.

2021 ACTUALLY PRESENTED A HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR FIRE  MANAGEMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST BECAUSE, YES, WHILE IT WAS A  REALLY BAD FIRE SEASON UP IN THE NORTHWEST, THERE WAS A  GREAT MONSOON ACROSS A LOT OF THE SOUTHWEST GIVING  FOREST MANAGERS A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO DO LOW RISK  CONTROLLED BURNING IN SOUTHWESTERN FORESTS, AND WE  LOST THAT CHANCE BECAUSE THE FOREST SERVICE TOOK A  ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL GOVERNMENT TYPE APPROACH WHERE THEY  SAID, NO MATTER WHAT, IF IT'S A FOREST IN THE UNITED  STATES, WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE DOING PRESCRIBED BURNING.

Laura: THANKS PARK WILLIAMS FOR JOINING ME.

I APPRECIATE IT.

Parker: THANK YOU.