Laura: WELCOME, THANKS FOR  JOINING ME TODAY.

Porter: GLAD TO BE HERE.

Laura: WHEN IT COMES TO ALLEVIATING DROUGHT, HOW MUCH  DO THE MONSOONS HELP VERSUS HOW MUCH DOES OUR SNOW PACK  HELP?

>> Porter: FOR THE WINTER  SEASON, THAT IS WHAT WE ARE REALLY LOOKING FOR BECAUSE WE  ARE LOOKING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WE ARE LOOKING FOR  SNOW PACK.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE  PILING UP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS YOU GET INTO THE SPRING MONTHS THAT EVENTUALLY SLOWLY  MELT AND WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE RESERVOIR SYSTEM AND  STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THE CHALLENGE THAT YOU FACE  DURING THE MONSOON SEASON, WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS  CERTAINLY WELCOME, A LOT OF TIMES IT CAN BE SPOTTY IN  NATURE.

YOU HAVE THE HAVE'S AND HAVE  NOT'S AND THAT HAPPENS ON A DAILY BASIS.

BUT SOMETIMES, YOU KNOW, YOU DON'T GET ENOUGH PRECIPITATION  DURING THE MONSOON SEASON TO HELP THE DROUGHT SITUATION,  SO, WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR IS PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE  PRECIPITATION.

YOU REALLY GET THAT DURING THE  WINTER SEASON AND IMPACTS A LARGER AREA OF THE STATE  VERSUS IN THE MONSOON SEASON IT CAN BE PRETTY SPOTTY AT  TIMES.

>> Laura: HERE IN THE  SOUTHWEST, WE ARE ALWAYS PAYING ATTENTION TO WHETHER IT  IS GOING TO BE EL NINO OR LA NINA.

CAN YOU SORT OF JUST GIVE US A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF WHAT THOSE  TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS MEAN FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND MAYBE WHAT  WE ARE LOOKING AHEAD TO IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, NEXT SIX  MONTHS.

>> Porter: SO, EL NINO IS AND  LA NINA, WE ARE FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC,  THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE.

A DEVIATION IN WHAT WE CONSIDER NORMAL FOR THAT  REGION.

RIGHT NOW WE ARE WHAT WE CALL  ENSO-NEUTRAL.

TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL  AND EASTERN PACIFIC ARE NEAR NORMAL.

WHAT THAT DOES, IT CHANGES THE WEATHER PATTERNS ACROSS THE  NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.

IT IS REALLY A PHENOMENA THAT  WE PAY ATTENTION TO DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS  BECAUSE THERE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE DIRECT CORRELATION WITH  WEATHER PATTERNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AMERICA.

AND WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS NOT A DIRECT  CORRELATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS FOR THE  MONSOON SEASON.

IF YOU AN EL NINO PATTERN  GOING ON IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, YOU DO HAVE BETTER  CHANCES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO DEVELOP.

WATERS ARE WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA AND IF YOU GET THE RIGHT  UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THAT COULD  TUG SOME OF THAT MOISTURE MORE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

SO, THAT COULD BE ONE SMALL CORRELATION WE SEE WITH EL  NINO DURING THE MONSOON SEASON BUT ACROSS THE WINTER AND  SPRING MONTHS, WHAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR IS EL NINO ACROSS  OUR REGION BECAUSE THAT TUGS THE STORM TRACK FURTHER  TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

AS YOU HAVE MORE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION YOU HAVE  GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SO THAT  TILTS YOUR ODDS MORE IN FAVOR OF MORE OF A NEAR TO ABOVE  NORMAL SEASON.

WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT RIGHT  NOW FOR THIS UPCOMING 2021, 2022 WINTER SEASON IS  NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT  THAT WE MIGHT BE FACED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LA NINA  CONDITIONS.

AND WE USUALLY, FOR NEW  MEXICO, THE STORM TRACK IS TOO FAR NORTH AND THAT REDUCES THE  OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

WE GENERALLY, IN THAT PATTERN, WE SEE BELOW NORMAL  PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THAT IS NOT TO SAY STORMS WON'T COME THROUGH THE REGION  AND THEY WON'T BE IMPACTFUL TO NEW MEXICO, WE STILL GET  SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING  THAT TIME AND WE NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THOSE SCENARIOS  BUT THE FREQUENCY OF THOSE EVENTS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO  BE FEWER THAN WHEN WE ARE IN NEUTRAL OR EL NINO.

JUST KIND OF AN INTERESTING STAT THAT I KIND OF LOOKED AT  BEFORE WE CAME ON THE SHOW HERE IS WHEN WE DO A DOUBLE  DIP INTO LA NINA, WE HAD A LA NINA AND COME OUT OF IT AND IT  IS FORECAST TO GO BACK INTO LA NINA, THOSE ARE HISTORICAL  TERRIBLE SEASONS FOR NEW MEXICO.

WE ARE USUALLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT  SO WE KIND OF NEED TO KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED THAT THE LA  NINA THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN COMING MONTHS IN THE FALL  AND WINTER SEASON ISN'T GOING TO BE AS SEVERE AS IN THE  PAST.

>> Laura: SO, RIGHT NOW  LOOKING AROUND THE STATE, LIKE MUCH OF THE STATE IS IN  DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

WE ARE SEEING OUR RIVERS LOW  AND DRYING, OUR RESERVOIRS ARE LOW.

WE SHOULD NOT BE THINKING LIKE, OH, LET'S JUST KEEP OUR  FINGERS CROSSED FOR A GOOD SNOW PACK AND NEXT YEAR WE'LL  BE OKAY?

>> Porter: ABSOLUTELY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE NEED TO HANG OUR HAT A LITTLE BIT ON THIS  MONSOON SEASON AND HOPE WE GET QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION  DURING THIS SEASON AND CAPTURE SOME OF THAT WATER THAT WE ARE  RECEIVING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS.

BUT, AS WE GO INTO THE WINTER AND INTO THE SPRING MONTHS, IT  LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER  ELEVATIONS AND THAT WILL CERTAINLY TRANSLATE TO A  CHALLENGING SPRING FOR 2022 BECAUSE IT COULD INTENSIFY THE  DROUGHT SITUATION.

THE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION  WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THEN ONCE WE GET THE  WESTERLIES THAT WE ARE ALL SO FAMILIAR WITH IN NEW MEXICO,  WHEN THE WINDS REALLY START TO PICK UP AND HUMIDITIES DROP  OFF, AND WE HAVE ALREADY GOT DROUGHT, THAT IS A RECIPE FOR  EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR AND THAT WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL  MONITOR CLOSELY NEXT SPRING.

>> Laura: ONE OF THE THINGS WE  KNOW ABOUT OUR CHANGING CLIMATE IS WE'LL CONTINUE TO  SEE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.

WHEN IT COMES TO  PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, OR THE FUTURE OF THE MONSOON SEASON,  WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THOSE CHANGES INTO THE FUTURE?

>> Porter: THE NORTHERN AMERICAN MONSOON IS ALREADY A  COMPLICATED AND NOT FULLY WELL UNDERSTOOD SYSTEM.

THAT IMPACTS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

NOW YOU ADD CLIMATE CHANGE INTO THE EQUATION, WHERE  TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING, THAT KIND OF TAKES THINGS OUT OF  BALANCE A LITTLE BIT.

SO IT BECOMES EVEN MORE  CHALLENGING TO PREDICT WHAT FUTURE MONSOON SEASONS ACROSS  THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAY BE FACED WITH.

AS YOU HAVE A WARMING CLIMATE, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM,  THE DROUGHTS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SEVERE, THE AIR OF  THE REGION BECOMES MUCH MORE ARID.

THERE IS SOME MODELING THAT SUGGESTS THAT AS WELL AS THE  TEMPERATURES WARM, THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WATER  VAPOR TO BE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WHEN YOU DO GET A STORM THAT DOES IMPACT YOUR REGION, YOU  GET THE RIGHT WEATHER PATTERN TO SET UP ACROSS YOUR REGION,  IT COULD BE MORE INTENSE IN NATURE, BECAUSE THERE IS MORE  WATER VAPOR AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH IN THE  ATMOSPHERE.

IT IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD.

WHEN YOU ADD THE SEVERE DROUGHTS THAT DO DEVELOP BUT  THEN WIND, YOU DO HAVE STORM SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH AND THEY  COULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

YOU'RE FACED WITH DROUGHT AND ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD RISKS  THAT COME WITH HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

>> Laura: THESE STORMS THAT WE SAW LIKE IN DONA ANA COUNTY OR  THAT CAUSED FLOODING IN BELEN OR CARLSBAD, ARE THESE  CONSIDERED EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS OR HOW DID THEY FIT  INTO THAT NARRATIVE?

>> Porter: FOR THE MONSOON  SEASON WE ALWAYS FACE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND IT IS  ALWAYS AMPLIFIED AS WELL WHEN YOU HAVE WILDFIRE BURN SCARS,  URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND WHAT HAVE YOU.

SO, THOSE CHALLENGES HAVE ALWAYS BEEN THERE AND THEY  WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE GOING FORWARD.

WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN PINPOINT SPECIFIC EVENTS AS TO WHETHER  OR NOT IT IS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE IS VERY  DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN.

BUT I WOULD SAY THAT THE RISK  FOR THOSE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS MOVING FORWARD, THE  FREQUENCY OF THOSE ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO INCREASE AS WE  CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARMING CLIMATE.

>> Laura: ONE OF THINGS WE TALKED ABOUT ON THE SHOW  BEFORE IS HOW OUR WARMING CLIMATE KIND OF SETS US UP TO  NOT ALWAYS HAVE A SENSE OF NORMAL, THAT THERE CAN BE DRY  PERIODS, THERE CAN BE VERY WET PERIODS AND CAN BE  UNPREDICTABLE.

I AM CURIOUS IF YOU COULD TALK  A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT IN TERMS OF HOW WE CAN ANTICIPATE  WHAT OUR WEATHER PATTERNS WILL BE LIKE AS WE HAVE A CHANGING  CLIMATE.

>> Porter: THAT IS AN  INTERESTING QUESTION AND ONE THAT MANY OF US MAY NOT  NECESSARILY KNOW THE ANSWERS TO BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING AT  NUMERICAL MODELS NOW AND WE SEE THE PATTERNS THAT WE  ANTICIPATE FOR THE UPCOMING SEASON BUT THEN MAYBE THEY  DON'T PAN OUT.

IS IT BECAUSE OF THE POOR  MODEL PERFORMANCE OR IS IT BECAUSE OF A CHANGING CLIMATE  ACROSS THE REGION?

IT ALWAYS SEEMS LIKE IT IS A  BIT OF A MOVING TARGET A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE WE ARE  FACING SOMETHING THAT WE HAVE NOT FACED WITH BEFORE IN MOST  RECENT YEARS, DECADES AND CENTURIES.

>> Laura: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING ME TODAY.

>> Porter: YOU'RE WELCOME.

THANKS FOR HAVING ME HERE.