GEOFF BENNETT: Good evening.

I'm Geoff Be AMNA NAWAZ: On the "News Ukraine looks like a no-go after House Speaker Johnson says it's dead on arrival.

GEOFF BENNETT: Secretary of State Blinken returns to the Middle East to push for a cease-fire and the release of hostages held in Gaza.

Can diplomacy prevail?

AARON DAVID you may get a break.

How long that is another matter entirely.

AMNA NAWAZ: And delays in form further into election season.

The consequences for this year's (BREAK) AMNA NAWAZ: Welcome to the "NewsHour."

The most significant immigration reform proposal in a generation is now in the hands of the U.S. Senate, after negotiators unveiled their compromise deal.

The bipartisan deal would tighten asylum rules and allow for partial border shutdowns, while increasing enforcement and opening some new avenues for legal migration.

GEOFF BENNETT: The measure would also offer billions of dollars in assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan for the defense of their respective borders.

Congressional correspondent Lisa Desjardins has been digging into the bill text and the immediate reactions to it.

Lisa, it's good to see you.

So, this is a signif through the entire thing.

What are the highlig LISA DESJARD And I want to help people understand the policy, especially on asylum, and then also big dollars when it comes to security here and abroad.

So let's loo First of all, let's talk about th There is an overhaul especially And then it also expands ICE detention in general.

It would also allow for border closures of some sorts, meaning a stop in processing of asylum claims under certain circumstances.

Now, as for that national security and int billion for Israel.

And if you l And that kind of money is essentially what President Biden initially requested.

So, really, the focus here at this moment is on that immigration policy part.

The senators who negotiated this say it was extraordinary they were even able to get to this point.

But they now h this as a once-in-a-generation bill.

SEN. KYRSTEN SINE security package that includes a realistic, pragmatic, and the strongest solution to our border crisis in my lifetime.

SEN. JAMES LANKFO the border's bad and then intentionally leave it open after history in December?

LISA DESJARD of Connecticut.

Those three senators are the on for the past few months to negotiate this out, also with the Biden team on board this.

But now they have to convince 60 senators.

And right now, by my count, there's just 12, wi yet.

GEOFF BENNET President Biden, back when he was trying to salvage th the border down using the authority granted to the president in the bill.

How would that work exactly?

LISA DESJARDIN But think about That huge group of people that have been massing at the borde have crossed the border through our asylum policy, which has meant that because of a lack of detention space and the way our asylum policy works, they have entered the country almost automatically and waited processing sometimes for years, in theory.

So what this bill has done to try and address that is a few things with this shutting down the border concept.

Let me explain t This would b And under this authority, DHS could immediately deport most of the m at the border, as opposed to now, when those migrants are generally allowed in the country to await processing.

Now, this would go int day, when we hit that average level.

It would be mandatory at 5,000 No w, some conservatives have a big problem with those numbers, but th than the numbers that we saw in the past few weeks, for sure.

Also, I want to mention that that is a policy closure of the border.

Of course, the border, there's still open land there.

This does allow a DHS secretary to continue GE OFF BENNETT: And reading through the legislation, Lisa, what's clear is that it really dramatically reimagines the asylum system in this country.

Tell us more about that.

LISA DESJARD believe me when I said what was in this in terms of the asylu So let's go through that, first of all, the asylum proposals in here.

There would be a tougher standard for people to enter the country in that fi The standard would move to clear and convincing.

Right now, it's just you have to show a signific Now, a fraction of the people would pass that screening, a very small fraction.

Most would probably be denied and put into removal processing and for deportation.

Now, here's a big change.

Right now, immigration judges are ma It would take the immigration judge completely out of the asylu And, instead, asylum officers would make that decision.

It's not even clear there would be a full interview.

We're not sure that lawyers would be present, they wanted.

But then, finally, entire process.

Now, while some on the left hi ghly critical, saying this is so limiting to asylum that it means very few people who really are fleeing persecution would make it through.

There's one voice.

GEOFF BENNET LISA DESJARDINS: Yes.

This is Andr ANDREA FLORES, FWD Unfortunately, this bill really goes overboard in making it even harder to get an already hard benefit.

So, it's addin be able to be qualify for protection.

LISA DESJARDINS: So, that's a concern, that this is just really limiting ri ghts concern from the left.

The senators who put this GEOFF BENNETT: Well, I was goin pushback from the right.

What's inter they support this legislation, says it has desperately needed reforms.

Why are Republicans on the Hill, why are they opposed to it?

What are they saying?

LISA DESJARD They say tha does not end that thing called catch-and-release, that while many migrants through this system would be given sort of what's called an alternative to detention, they would be having ankle bracelets,some say that's not enough and that this would leave people in this country able to kind of at will move around, which is something that the conservatives don't like, but which Democrats say there's not proof that that's been a significant problem.

I talked to Chad Wolf, who's a former secre CHAD WOLF, Former Acting They talk about single adults being detained.

Well, they only have 50,000 beds.

And I can guarantee you there is a lot more single adults coming across need to be apprehended before they can be removed than 50,000.

LISA DESJARDINS: Conservatives also wanted some things that were not in here.

They wanted more limits on humanitarian parole.

It's a win for the Biden White House that ther bill.

And in addit wanted more of that.

And that also is not i GEOFF BENNETT: So in the LISA DESJARDINS: Right.

It's tricky.

We expect a Now, the three senators that I talked about are moving It is uphill, even in the Senate, which is amazing, because this is the most conservative immigration legislation we have seen in decades.

But they're having trouble with Republicans, namely, House Speake He doesn't have a Senate vote, of course, but he has influence.

Here's what he tweeted out.

He said: "This is -- this bi If this bill reaches the House, it will be dead on arrival."

The hope from senators behind this is that they can turn that aro Senate vote.

Right now, it lo At the same time, we kno GEOFF BENNETT: Indeed.

Lisa Desjard LISA DESJARDINS: You're welcome.

AMNA NAWAZ: In the day's other headlines: A state of emergency covered much of Southern California as a giant storm dumped a deluge.

The same storm had already swamped Northern California and was blamed for two de Stephanie Sy has our report.

STEPHANIE SY: It's the second so a matter of days, bringing record rainfall, life-threatening floods and mudslides.

STAN LATHAN, California Resident: I never imagined it would be this bad.

STEPHANIE SY: Stan Lathan lives in Studio City.

A mudslide damaged two of his neighbors homes.

STAN LATHAN: It was very, very loud, sounded like a -- so you know?

The rain was very loud.

We were just -- you're pretty scared.

STEPHANIE SY: The back-to-back storms says Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.

DANIEL SWAIN, Climate Scientist, UCLA: Well, an atmospheric sense, exactly what it sounds like, which is a highly concentrated plume or a r of atmospheric water vapor in the air above your head being pushed quickly by the winds.

STEPHANIE SY: Those powerful winds were on full display, whipping up sea foam around the Santa Cruz Wharf.

The National Weather Service Coast, with gusts topping 80 miles per hour.

Evacuation orders and warnings were posted for Santa Barbara, Monterey, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties.

Teresa Rees was one of those residents ordered to e TERESA REES, California Resident: I'm not sure how I'm g kind of in a wait-and-see kind of position.

I have got my sandbags.

STEPHANIE SY: Officials were espe recent wildfires, putting them at high risk for flooding and mudslides.

A month's worth of rain has inundated Southern California in the last day alone, and more than a million people in and around Los Angeles were under a flash flood warning today.

As of this morning, about half-a-million customers across the state were still without power.

Daniel Swain says climate change is playing a role in the severity and frequency of these storms.

DANIEL SWAIN a warming climate and more extreme precipitation events following from them.

STEPHANIE SY: Forecasters expect heavy to moderate rain to continue to fall on Southern California until tomorrow.

For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm Stephanie Sy.

AMNA NAWAZ: Before the back-to-back storms, California had s since October and snowpack was just 30 percent of its historic average.

An official mourning period began today in Chile after weekend wildfires killed at least 122 people with hundreds more missing.

Wind-driven flames tore through the Valparaiso region.

The city of Vina del Mar suffered some of the worst damage.

Aerial footage there showed entire neighborhoods reduced to ash.

Officials warned that the death toll is likely to rise as rescuers search homes.

Buckingham Palace announced today that Britain's King Charles has been diagnosed with cancer, but gave no details on which type.

The king is undergoing treatment as an outpatie state business and official paperwork as usual," but he will not make public appearances.

The king is 75 years old.

He ascended to the throne in September of 2022 In El Salvador, the incumbent president, Nayib Bukele, appeared to be the landslide winner in his bid for reelection.

In his first term, Bukele in his own hands.

Supporters poured into a plaza ne without waiting for the official results.

NAYIB BUKELE, President of El Salvador (throug world, since the existence of democracy, never has a project won with the quantity of votes that we have won.

The media says that Salv of the government.

Let God show the journalists this night of AMNA NAWAZ: El Salvador's Constitution bars presidents from holding consecutive terms, but a court allied with Bukele reinterpreted that ban, allowing him to run again.

Back in this country, an oversight board called out Meta today over manipulated media on Facebook and its potential effects on elections.

The panel said an altered video of President Bi don't work.

In a statement, it s fails to clearly specify the harms it's seeking to prevent."

There's yet more trouble for Boeing.

The company says a supplier has found im jetliners.

Boeing says the holes do be delayed.

It's the latest red flag And on Wall Street, stocks gave ground over fears that the economy is still too strong to allow for lower interest rates.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 274 Th e Nasdaq fell 31 points, and the S&P 500 was down 15.

And this year's Grammy Awards winners are in the books, with women leading the way.

Taylor Swift set a record last night, taking home album of the year for the fourth time.

Miley Cyrus earned her first Grammys, including record of the year.

And Tracy Chapman and Luke Combs performed a duet of "Fast Car," her hit from 1988 that he covered last year.

Overnight, the original shot to St ill to come on the "NewsHour": Tamara Keith and Amy Walter break down the latest political headlines; a look at the overlap between former President Trump's court and election calendars; a poet-turned-author discusses his new novel about a young Iranian-American struggling with survivor's guilt; plus much more.

GEOFF BENNETT: Secretary of State Antony Blinken began a four-day tour of the Middle East today, hoping to make progress on a deal to pause the war in Gaza and release Israeli hostages.

The Biden administration hopes that deal could lead to larger diplomatic initiatives across the region.

But how real Nick Schifrin takes a closer NI CK SCHIFRIN: In the heart of Is raeli soldiers fight courtyard to courtyard and floor by floor.

They have been assaulting this city for months, but Hamas militants still fight back.

The fiercest combat is in the south in Khan Yunis, a city of half-a-million that is increasingly filled with smoke and destruction.

Israel's defense forces said soldiers raided a booby-trapped traini October 7 terrorist attacks.

Israel says it has now destroyed 18 of Hamas 24 battalions, o Netanyahu called Israel's unchangeable military goal.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, Israeli Prime Minister (through translator): Total victory is essential because it ensures the security of Israel.

Total victory is the only way in which we can ensure additio which await.

NICK SCHIFRI Israel's agreed to stop the war for six weeks in exchange for Hamas' releasing 30 to 35 older women and children.

The other 100 or so hostages Ha mas says it's considering the outline and would respond soon.

Until the guns stop, back in Khan Yunis, Palestinians such as Hussam Ahmed Abu-Haitham return home, despite the risk of being shot.

He salvages what he can.

HUSSAM AHMED ABU-HAITHAM, Disp and came here today to get what is left over from our homes.

Of course, it's total destruction, as you can see.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Local hospitals are mostly destroyed, so Palestinian Red Crescent worke operate out of tents doing what they can to treat injuries.

Ibrahim Abu-Alkas is a paramedic.

IBRAHIM ABU-ALKAS, Red Crescent Paramedic (t world need to come up with an instant solution to end the struggle of the Palestinian population as a collective and especially the medical teams that are daily subjected to murder or injury.

NICK SCHIFRI Rafah now hosts more than a million people, nearly At this charity kitchen, the lines are long and supply is limited.

AYESHA ABU AL-KHAIR, Displaced Gazan (through translator): We ask the president of the United States to help the people of Gaza.

Instead of helping Israel with rockets and bombardm people are struggling to get a plate of food or a loaf of bread.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Increasing aid to Gaza is one of Secretary of State Antony Blinke on his fifth trip to the Middle East since October.

He met for nearly two hours with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Sa out the promise of diplomatic normalization with Israel.

But Saudi leaders have made clear that normalization isn't possible without -- quote steps" toward a Palestinian state.

U.S. officials hope a pause in the fighti larger issues, reconstructing Gaza, reforming the Palestinian Authority, developing Gaza governance, and finally normalization in two states.

Now we get two perspectives.

Aaron David Miller is a senior fell and a longtime State Department official in both Democratic and Republican admini And Khaled Elgindy is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, where he directs their Program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs.

He's participated in previous Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Thanks very much, both of you.

Welcome back to the "NewsHour."

Khaled Elgindy, Let's start with what's on the ta So far, Hamas has refused any deal that doesn't say the words permanent cease-fire.

This deal does not have that.

Is it still possible, do you KHALED ELGINDY, Middle East Institute: I think it's possible.

I think what Hamas will look for short of exactly those words will be some assurances that a temporary pause would be treated as an effective cease-fire.

So, if they can get those kinds of assurances from the United States, in particular, then I think Hamas could be persuaded to go along.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Aaron David Miller, this is a longer pause, in the American nomenclature, than we have had in the past.

Could that six-week-pl AARON DAVID MILLER, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Frankly, I think the Israelis will be operating in Gaza for months to come even if this hos materializes.

And whatever I think all bets are off.

They're determined, I think, to identify, were responsible for October 7.

So I think it's possible you ma How long that break will be and whether it can be turned is another matter entirely.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Khaled Elgindy, let The pot at the end of this rainbow, as I said, is Saudi-Isr are now calling irrevocable steps toward a two-state solution.

Is that possible with the Biden administration as mediator and this Israeli government?

KHALED ELGINDY: I think it's certainly possible that the parties, the Saudis, the Israelis, the Americans, could strike a formula that works for the three of them.

I'm not sure that it will be meaningful in the end, but it might be enough to persuade all sides to attach their names to it.

I think the problem isn't with getting people to accept a state.

Even Donald Trump had a plan for a Palestinian state, at the end of the day, as devoid of meaning and sovereignty as it was.

I think what would be far more useful is if ab out laying out a clear plan for ending Israel's occupation, both in Gaza, but also in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

If the plan were focused on endi But as it stands, sure, a statehood, a Palestinian state, two-state solution, these are throwaway lines that have been agreed to and ignored in the past.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Aaron David Miller, should the U.S. be more focused on Is than talking about two states?

AARON DAVID MILLER: We that was serious about negotiating a deal and a Palestinian partner that was serious as well is going to bring about, must bring about the end of Israel's occupation.

I do agree with Khaled that I think such a deal is possible.

I'm concerned about it.

I think we risk ov A mutual defense treaty, I don't think we have concluded one with any country the 1960 U.S.-Japan treaty was revised.

Giving the Saudis access to American nuclear technology without - the fuel cycle, that's a huge blow to our proliferation policy.

And I also worry that, in the end, whatever commitments the Israeli -- this Isra makes is not going to lead to -- irrevocably to a serious negotiation.

Palestinians have to produce a partner.

Israelis need to be serious as Then we can start talkin I don't think Is conflict.

NICK SCHIFRI It was started by the Trump administration.

But pick up, Khaled Elgindy, on that point partner.

Is there a P And is there a - Authority?

Is that poss KHALED ELGIN have a revitalized Palestinian leadership.

Whether it's the Palestinian Authority is irrelevant.

What Palestinians need is a national leadership, and that speaks for all in side and outside the occupied territories.

That, we don't have.

Mahmoud Abbas is not that He has been parochial.

He's been ineffective.

He's been we I think it is po but it's something that Palestinians have to do on their own.

But I would add to that leadership equation the United States.

The United States has not been an effective broker.

It has not managed this crisis well.

It has actually taken, I think, very reckless decisions from the get-go, givi green light with no red lines of any sort.

And we are now four months into this horror in Gaza, and they have sort of into a corner.

So we also need a cr ability to connect with people on both sides.

Right now, the Biden administration has only managed to show humanity and Is raeli side.

NICK SCHIFRI that would be less -- quote -- "reckless," less AARON DAVID MILLER: It would be really, really difficult.

The empathy part, I think, is, sadly, lacking.

This president clearly has an emotional attachment to Israel.

He has a high regard for the people of Israel, the idea of Israel, the no t so much, obviously, for the current Israeli prime minister.

But I think that lack of empathy is important.

As to whether the United States could the most consequential elections in American history.

The real question, I think, for the administra in this kind of an election year, this administration is prepared to be risk-ready when it comes to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, not risk-averse.

The Israeli-Saudi piece is the easy part.

It's whether or not the United States can be a credible mediator if, i I don't think we're talking about this happening any time soon -- if you ended up with an Israeli-Palestinian negotiation.

Last time, C Didn't succeed.

We were facing g But we also didn't take charge of the summit.

We need to be credible.

We need to app But we also are going to have to apply plenty of vinegar, disincentives.

Nobody's ever going to plant a tree in your honor if you make peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

It's a tough NICK SCHIFRI that is talking to the Palestinians, unlike the Trump administration, and at least saying to the region, this is where we're going, this is, as I put it earlier, the pot at the end of the rainbow?

KHALED ELGIN I mean, that's the bare minimum required, is the ability to talk to both sides.

But it's more important to go beyond that and actually understand where the two sides are coming from.

The United S for Palestinians.

But this administration, I th at I have ever seen.

NICK SCHIFRI his right-wing coalition if offered a deal that would end with normalization with Saudi Arabia?

AARON DAVID government.

If he goes f And those partners don't have much regard for Mr. Netanyahu on trial for bribery, fraud breach of trust in a Jerusalem district court.

I suspect, if he goes through this dea to number his days.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Aaron David Miller, Khaled El AARON DAVID MILLER: Thank you, Nick.

KHALED ELGINDY: Thank you.

AMNA NAWAZ: We return now to the immigration and national security bill.

Democrat Chris Murphy of Connecticut is one of the three key senators who negotiated that agreement.

He joins me Senator, welcome back to the Th anks for joining us.

My colleague reported that House Speaker Johnson says the bill is dead on arrival.

Where is the path forward now?

And what's your understanding SE N. CHRIS MURPHY Last fall, Democrats tried to pass funding for Ukraine necessary in order to stop Russia from succeeding in their invasion, and Senate Republicans said to us, we're not willing to support Ukraine funding without border provisions.

We engaged for four months in a good-faith negotiation the border, in part becaus know the president needs new authorities to control the number of people who are crossing.

And we achieved that agreement that allows the president to shut down parts of the border when crossings get very high, that dramatically reforms the asylum system, so that it doesn't take 10 years any longer to get a claim processed, it will now take six months, and lets more people into the country legally with an expansion of family and employment visas.

But now Republicans seem to be getting cold feet because Donald Trump has said and his allies in the House have said, we don't want to pass any bipartisan border reform.

We'd rather leave the border open and chaotic, because it will help President Trump in his upcoming reelection.

I still believ this passed.

And, if we d and Ukraine can maybe unlock a pathway forward in the House.

AMNA NAWAZ: You have faced some criticism from your fellow Democrats as we in particular.

The caucus c She said President Biden and Senate Democrats have fallen into the same trap again.

Are you worried that the bill could alienate your progressive base?

SEN. CHRIS MURPHY in 40 years.

And that is because both common ground.

This is an old-fas in which there are going to be some Democrats that vote no and a lot more Republicans that vote no.

But what we have achieve The reality is, this country can't handle 10,000 people coming every d border with the resources that we have.

We shouldn't be OK with an asylum claim taking a decade befor So, the reforms we're making here are going to make more sense of a broken immigration system.

I know it's It's not everything that But I think our job is to co AMNA NAWAZ: Well, the bill has some $20 billion for the border, but the bulk is for Ukraine, some $60 billion of what's been called critical funding for their war against Russia.

If there's no path forward f some kind of expedited way to Ukraine?

SEN. CHRIS MURPHY The reason why we are talking about these two provisions being put together is be Republicans demanded it.

And so we can't forget the reason why we are at this moment.

But I think that we need to call Speaker Johnson's bluff.

I think he doesn't want the Senate bill to succeed because he knows there woul pressure from some elements of his own caucus that support Ukraine funding to bring it up for a vote in the House.

So I just think the Senate Th e right thing is to support this bipartisan compromise that fi funding to Ukraine.

And then, hopefully, that changes so I haven't heard a better plan from any of these Republicans who right now seem to be content to sit on the sidelines and complain and critique, but not actually get in the room, as Senator Lankford, Senator Sinema and myself have.

AMNA NAWAZ: Just to be clear, you think, once this pas Senate, that creates enough pressure to change the dynamics in the House?

What have you seen that leads you to believe that could be true?

SEN. CHRIS MURPHY Speaker Johnson right now is just offering complaints.

He's not actually proposing any bipartisan solution to fund Ukraine and fix the border.

And the reality is, there are two parties in Washington.

Republicans don't get to dictate everything that happens here.

That's why I reached out to Senator Lankford.

That's why he reached out to me.

That's why we have Until I hear a better idea on how to get a bipartisan compr is the only one that's possible to pass and be signed into law.

AMNA NAWAZ: Senator, before I let you go, I have to ask about another provis bill.

It includes, But it strips funding for UNRWA, which is the United Nations agency that operates inside of Gaza.

That's because I But we have heard UNRWA is the only group capable of actually delivering aid on the ground.

So is there where it needs to go?

SEN. CHRIS MURPHY UNRWA has been We're also learning that elements of UNRWA are compromised.

This was a demand of Republicans.

The only way that they were willing out the authority for that money to go to UNRWA.

We didn't feel like it was the responsible thin And we also do know that groups like the Red Crescent, groups like the World Food Program, other smaller not-for-profit actors on the ground can get this key humanitarian aid out.

So we believe that we can find good, responsible, vetted partners.

We also believe that some of our allies in and around the region and in Europe will be able to help UNRWA keep their operations up and running.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy from Connecticut, sir, t you for your time.

Good to spea SEN. CHRIS MURPHY GEOFF BENNETT: Former President Dona as two upcoming court decisions could shape his campaign and his businesses.

In Washington, the former president's federal trial for election interference has been delayed while an appeals court rules on Donald Trump's argument that he's immune from prosecution.

And a verdict in the New York civil fraud trial has been pushed back.

Our William Brangham has been following the latest developments, and he joins us now.

William, it's always good to see you.

So we have been waiting What's the latest with that?

WILLIAM BRAN As you just frozen waiting for this immunity ruling.

And the D.C.

Circuit Court of Appeals initially set th fast briefs, and so everyone thought a ruling would happen quickly, but it hasn't.

It's been four weeks now and near radio silence.

And it's all the more striking because, in the hearing that they held, the th on this panel, two appointed by Biden, one by Bush Sr., seemed very skeptical of Trump's immunity argument, which, if you remember, the president and his legal team, the former president, argued that because these alleged election crimes occurred while he was president, he should be immune from prosecution from them completely.

And this led one of the judges, Florence Pan, to sort of stretch thi extreme.

And she aske a political rival and Congress didn't impeach Trump for that, he would be immune from prosecution, she asked?

And Trump's lawy So, a great deal of skepticism towards this case.

GEOFF BENNETT: So, if Donald Trump loses this case, the immunity cla for the overall federal January 6 case?

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Well, he most likely would appe court, all 11 judges, not the three, hear it.

He could also appeal to the Supreme Court to listen If either of those courts took that up, that would further delay the January the point where we could be in a position where this case doesn't start until summer, fall, and then you have the former president campaigning for president when he's required to be in court on this major federal case.

I mean, it's a very, very complicated situation.

A lot of pressure would be brought on Judge Tanya Chutkan, who's o to postpone or to push it off.

She so far has shown no interest But the flip side of that is that many people argue that it is simply to go into a presidential election not knowing the innocence or the guilt of Donald Trump as to whether he tried to subvert the previous election.

GEOFF BENNETT: And then add to all of that, William, the New York civi What's the latest there?

WILLIAM BRAN that case.

He then said at This case, as we have reported in the past, is about what penalty Donald Trump and his associates should be getting for this decade-long fraud that they committed, that the judge has ruled that they did commit.

And so this is a penalty phase.

The attorney general in and his business associates and wants him banned from doing work in New York.

That ruling is coming any day now, but, again, could be a major, major blow to the former president.

GEOFF BENNET William, tha WILLIAM BRANGHAM: My pleasure.

AMNA NAWAZ: How will immigration affect the 2024 presidential election?

Time for some analysis from our Politics Monday team.

That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Wal Good to see you both.

AMY WALTER, The Cook P TAMARA KEITH AMNA NAWAZ: there.

Amy, what th legislation for immigration in three decades in this country.

The fact that the president was willing to go as far as he was, what do you?

AMY WALTER, the president, how problematic this issue is for their party goi year.

What I find the issue of immigration, is next week.

There's a special election in a congressional Th is is George Santos' seat on Long Island.

The issue of immigration, not surprisingly, is playing a starring role with the there taking a position that sounds very much like Joe Biden, talking about being able to have more border security, supporting this plan that just was released by the Senate.

The Republican candidate and Republicans in general attacking the plan, she has not supported the plan, and attacking the Democrats, including this one, as being part of the open border party.

In other wor results of the election, we will have at least our first, our very first test for whether this issue and the way Democrats are talking about it, the way Republicans are talking about it, which side can claim some sort of political victory.

Again, it's a special, so we can't draw too many conclusions, but we will really get a sense for whether or not, for example, if Republicans lose, this strategy of just blaming everything on Biden may not work.

AMNA NAWAZ: Yes.

Tam, how are I mean, Repu They have been clamoring for it for ye TAMARA KEITH: Right.

AMNA NAWAZ: does that blow back on them from their base?

TAMARA KEITH: Not from their I don't think it would blow I mean, there is this argument that if this is to be dealt with right now -- and this is an argument that you're hearing from people like James Lankford.

If it has to Why wait until, in theory, Trump is in office?

And then you might still have a divided government, and you might not So you're still -- you're -- at the best-case scenario, you're pushing this a year out, and worst-case scenario potentially way more gridlock.

But Trump has made it abundantly clear that he does not want this.

He was back out on the air today saying it's terrible, calling it amnesty, all of t things that it isn't.

But it is a compromise.

It is not the bill that form It's not the bill that the speaker of the House would author.

But it is something that, in theory, if it actually could get to a floor vote, which it may not get in the Senate and it is even less likely to get in the House, it is something that could pass.

It would be sort of a coalition of moderates and coalition.

You would lo pass.

It may not g AMNA NAWAZ: Speaking of those national secur The biggest piece of this bill is that Ukraine funding.

Republicans largely remain opposed to it in the House.

AMY WALTER: That's right.

AMNA NAWAZ: line?

AMY WALTER: piece of it is -- has been sort of separated out.

I mean, I think the fact that the speaker is saying, look, we're willing to do a bill on Israel... (CROSSTALK) AMNA NAWAZ: AMY WALTER: They do not see that holding up fu TAMARA KEITH: With their base.

AMY WALTER: AMNA NAWAZ: So, meanwhile, the 2024 primary season rolls on.

President Biden now has his first primary win after South Carolina Take a look at these results.

It is what you would call a 2 percent to Dean Phillips' just under 2 percent there as well.

Look, Amy, we know four years ago it was Black voters there that really resurrected his camp Did they show up with the same level of enthusiasm this time?

AMY WALTER: Obviously, turnout as down considerably because it wasn't competitive an hard to get people excited to show up to vote in a race that's not competitive.

I know why the Biden campaign wants to point to that 96 percent number and to the turnout in certain areas of the state that have significant African American population.

It's to sort of tamp down the hand-wringing among many Democrats that the campaign has a base problem, has a problem especially with African American voters.

I don't think this is going to make that case, because, as I said, it's not a real race.

It was this -- a race against candidates who didn't campaign.

Where it did make a case, though, is against the idea that Dean Phillips has -- who is one of those candidates there, has been raising for a while now that voters want an alternative, they want a younger alternative to Joe Biden.

Clearly, they do not, or, at the very least, they do not want h AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, there's also concerns more broadly about the Biden coalition, right, after there was this opinion headline in The Wall Street Journal that called Dearborn, Michigan, America's jihad capital.

Biden issued a statement about Islamophobia and hate, and says we ha all forms.

How critical in a state like Michigan?

TAMARA KEITH: So or Nevada, the key swing states that are going to decide this election.

In Nevada, for instance, it was very narrowly divided -- decided.

President Biden won by very few votes, same in Georgia.

Michigan, he actually won by a bit more.

But he had these very narrow victories in several key states, which means every little piece of margin matters.

And, yes, young voters are a ch how to address, but they face all kinds of challenges.

Like, young voters are not watching TV.

They're not watching ads on cable.

They are not consuming their news in a way th And so there are a lot of barriers that they are facing that they're trying to figure out how to deal with.

But, absolutely, t They have a problem with voters of color, and they're trying to AMNA NAWAZ: Yes.

AMY WALTER: of weeks ago, that was the exact point he made was, one of these groups alone wo be enough to sink Biden's fortunes in the state, because he has a big enough cushi But if you combine all three of those into one... AMNA NAWAZ: Yes.

(CROSSTALK) AMY WALTER: to absolute toss-up to maybe even going to Trump.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, you mentioned Nevada.

On the Republican side, on Tw o days later, there's going to be a party-run presidential caucus.

What's happening there?

TAMARA KEITH And many of them have already voted, early-voted in delegates in the Republican primary.

The caucus is where it's at in terms of delegates, and Trump is l Nikki Haley isn't on the primary ballot.

It's a big mess.

But what is most interesti And neither Trump nor Haley are really -- Haley especially -- not spending any time there.

Trump hasn't spent a dollar on ads in the state, and this is a state that is going to matter later.

But, right n AMNA NAWAZ: Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, nice closing thought there.

(LAUGHTER) AMNA NAWAZ: Thank you.

TAMARA KEITH: You're welcome AMNA NAWAZ: A young Iranian American poet considers life, death, and a whole lot more.

It's all part of a new n Jeffrey Brown has that story for our arts and culture series, Canvas.

JIM LEHRER, Co-Founder and Former Anchor, "PBS NewsHour": Good e Aftermath from the Iranian airliner shoot-down dominates the ne JEFFREY BROWN: In 1988, in the midst of the Iran-Iraq War, the U.S. military accidentally shot down an Iranian commercial passenger jet, killing all 290 people aboard.

That real-life tragedy sets in motion the fictional events in the new novel "Martyr!"

by Kaveh Akbar.

KAVEH AKBAR, in America knows about it.

And one of the projects of 290 people were killed on board.

If that number was 289 or 291, it wouldn't ma me; 290 is a middle-large number.

It's more than five.

T's less tha But that one life, every character in (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) KAVEH AKBAR: Thank you all so much for being he JEFFREY BROWN: The 35-year-old Akbar, whom we was himself born in Iran to an Iranian father and American mother, and came to t at age 2, his family eventually settling in Wisconsin.

He teaches creative writing at the University of Iowa and has made a name for himself a poet and poetry editor, including at the "Nation" magazine.

But a longer story began to swirl around in his head, and he gave himself a crash course in writing narrative.

KAVEH AKBAR: Jus and years and constantly feeding it narrative, I'm consuming narrative I' m doing this, in the form of two novels a week and a movie a day, was the sort of silly diet that I put myself on.

But... JEFFREY BROW KAVEH AKBAR: Yes, of course.

JEFFREY BROW KAVEH AKBAR: You know, I would read Morri old pulp science fiction and just everything that I could find and get my hands on.

I just wanted to understand how an author moves the reader through beats of narrative without making it feel super heavy-handed, without making it feel just like a cudgel of exposition.

JEFFREY BROW And that exclamation point is import KAVEH AKBAR: I think it would be a pre without an exclamation point.

I think it would h and that's not the sort of book that it is.

It's a -- I think that it is oftentim and it is quite ecstatic even.

JEFFREY BROWN: It's a mash-up romp whose protagonist is an Iranian-Am named Cyrus, whose head bursts with contemporary pop culture and medieval Persian classics.

Is that you too?

KAVEH AKBAR: Of course.

JEFFREY BROW KAVEH AKBAR: I love Ferdo I love the S I love Hafez.

I love Islam But I also love Erykah Badu.

I love EPMD and Vogue and And it has shaped the person that I am.

It has shaped the identity that I walk through has.

JEFFREY BROW In his 20s, he became addicted to alcohol and drugs, a self-destructive period nearly did destroy him.

KAVEH AKBAR: I am in recovery.

I'm 10 years and some change sober.

It has... JEFFREY BROW KAVEH AKBAR: It's very, v And all of m And every experience of my life, every interaction that I have, my spouse, my dog, my teaching position, the fact that we're sat here right now, is predicated on the fact of my recovery, right?

Had I not re JEFFREY BROWN: But that stay KAVEH AKBAR: Of course.

I'm no less I just have better tools with which to cope with You learn techniques.

You gain a c And so it's not like I'm walking around white-knuckling it today.

I have resources.

I have communi But I'm no less an addic You know, if I take the first is today, all bets are off, right?

The partition between me and an early preventable death is a lit a lot of people.

And that is That is something "'I have been thinking about dying,' Cyrus Sham the black chair across from her."

JEFFREY BROWN: For his ye ars into his own recovery, something similar, but now bringing his first novel into the world.

Did you have KAVEH AKBAR: It's among t There are extended conversations with Lisa Simpson the dead are talking and deliberating.

And it's just -- it's such a strange thing An d I hope that it coheres.

I hope that it makes narrative But it was absolutely thrilling to write.

JEFFREY BROWN: All right, the book is "Martyr!"

with an exclamation point.

KAVEH AKBAR: JEFFREY BROW KAVEH AKBAR: Thank you s My luck to be here.

GEOFF BENNETT: And join us again here tomorrow night.

I will speak with Joy-Ann Reid about her new book on the extraordinary lives and love of civil rights icons Medgar and Myrlie Evers.

And that is the "NewsHour" for tonight.

I'm Geoff Bennett.

AMNA NAWAZ: On behalf of t