THIS TIME OF YEAR ON THE RIO GRANDE, WE SHOULD BE SEEING MUCH HIGHER FLOWS THAN WE ARE RIGHT NOW.

SOUTH OF ALBUQUERQUE, THE RIVER IS EVEN DRY IN PLACES.

BUT SCIENTISTS ARE NOT SURPRISED THAT THIS IS HAPPENING.

AND A NEW PAPER BY SHALEENE CHAVARRIA AND DAVID GUTZLER, THEY TALK ABOUT WHY THIS IS HAPPENING AND WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN THE FUTURE.

WE SEE BIG CHANGES IN THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING, SO BIG CHANGES IN WINTER TEMPERATURE, INCREASES IN WINTER AND SPRINGTIME TEMPERATURES, AND DECREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

AT THE SAME TIME THAT OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED, WE'RE RETHINKING THE WAY THAT THE DIFFERENT COMPONENTS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM FIT TOGETHER IN A NEW CLIMATE THAT'S UNAMBIGUOUSLY GETTING WARMER.

UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO PROFESSOR DAVID GUTZLER HAS BEEN STUDYING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR MORE THAN TWO DECADES.

RIGHT NOW, HE SAYS THE STATE IS ABOUT THREE DEGREE WARMER THAN IT WAS DURING THE 1970s.

THOSE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN EXTREMES.

WINTERS AREN'T AS COLD, AND MORE SUMMER DAYS ARE VERY HOT, EVEN BY NEW MEXICO STANDARDS.

NOW, WARMING TREND OVER TIME IS DIFFERENT FROM VARIABILITY OR YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES.

NEW MEXICO IS A VARIABLE CLIMATE.

SO FOR MILLENNIA, WE HAVE SEEN WET PERIODS AND DRY PERIODS ON THE ORDER OF DECADES.

WHAT'S NOT SO NORMAL BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS IS HOW WARM IT'S BEEN.

AND SO LOOKING FORWARD, WE NEED TO PLAN FOR A TIME WHEN WE HAVE WET SPELLS AND DRY SPELLS THAT CAN LAST FOR MANY YEARS, ALL IN THE CONTEXT OF A WARMER CLIMATE, WHICH MEANS LESS SNOWPACK AND DIMINISHED SURFACE WATER RECHARGE AND LESS SURFACE WATER FLOWING DOWN THE RIVERS DURING THE DROUGHT PERIODS.

AND THOSE EFFECTIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THOSE DROUGHT PERIODS IS TO MAKE EXTREME DROUGHT EVEN MORE SEVERE BY INCREASING EVAPORATION RATES AND DRYING OUT THE SOIL, MELTING THE SNOW.

MANY NEW MEXICO COMMUNITIES ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCLUDING THOSE AROUND THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS, WHICH HAVE BEEN HIT BY DROUGHT, THEN FIRES, AND LATER BY POST FIRE FLOODING.

SHALEENE CHAVARRIA IS FROM THE PUEBLO OF SANTA CLARA, AND SHE'S A RECENT GRADUATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO.

HER MASTERS WORK FOCUSED ON THE EFFECT OF WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SNOWPACK AND STREAM FLOWS.

MY PEOPLE, THE SANTA CLARA PEOPLE, OUR TRADITIONS REVOLVE AROUND THE SEASONS AND REVOLVE AROUND THE WATER THAT WE GET FROM THE RIVER.

WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF CHANGES IN OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FIRES THAT HAVE IMPACTED OUR WATERSHED.

WE'VE HAD MULTIPLE FIRES THAT HAVE HIT THE SANTA CLARA PUEBLO, BUT THE MOST RECENT FIRE, THE LOS CONCHAS FIRE, WAS A REALLY DEVASTATING FIRE.

IT BURNT A MAJOR PORTION OF THE SANTA CLARA CANYON AREA, WHICH IS THE HEADWATERS OF THE SANTA CLARA PUEBLO.

HAVING LIVED ON THESE LANDS FOR GENERATIONS, PUEBLO PEOPLE KNOW CHANGE IS HAPPENING, AND WHILE THEY'RE STILL DEALING WITH CURRENT FIRES AND FLOODS, MORE IS LIKELY COMING.

EVERYTHING WORKS TOGETHER.

IF I DO SOMETHING, IT'S GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON SOMETHING ELSE, WHICH IS GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON SOMETHING ELSE.

SO IF I DEGRADE THE ENVIRONMENT, IT'S GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON FUTURE GENERATIONS.

FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST IS THAT WATER RESOURCES WILL BE STRESSED.

SO WE WON'T LITERALLY RUN OUT OF WATER BY ANY MEANS, BUT THE WAYS WE'VE MANAGED WATER IN THE PAST MAY NOT WORK TO PROVIDE ALL THE WATER THAT PEOPLE THINK THEY NEED IN THE FUTURE.

AND THE SOONER WE PLAN FOR THAT, THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE THAT WE'LL END UP MANAGING WATER IN A WAY THAT DOES SATISFY PEOPLE'S NEEDS AS WE DEFINE THOSE NEEDS IN THE FUTURE.

ALREADY IN APRIL WHEN THE RIVER SHOULD BE RUNNING HIGH WITH SNOW MELT, MORE THAN TEN MILES OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE SOUTH OF SOCORRO HAVE DRIED.

EVEN IN ALBUQUERQUE, THE RIVER'S DOWN TO LEVELS USUALLY SEEN DURING THE HOTTEST, DRIEST WEEKS OF SUMMER.

FOR NEW MEXICO InFOCUS, AND 'OUR LAND,' I'M LAURA PASKUS.