Laura: I AM LAURA PASKUS AND ON OUR LAND THIS MONTH I  CHECK IN WITH CLIMATE SCIENTIST DAVE GUTZLER, JUST  RETIRED FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO.

WE TALK ABOUT THE CHANGES NEW MEXICO'S ALREADY EXPERIENCING  AND WHY IT IS SO HARD FOR POLICYMAKERS AND POLITICIANS  TO ACT ON CLIMATE.

THANKS, DR. GUTZLER, FOR  JOINING ME TODAY.

Gutzler: QUITE A PLEASURE.

THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON.

Laura: YOU RECENTLY RETIRED  FROM UNM.

WHERE YOU WORKED WITH  GENERATIONS OF STUDENTS, HAVE DONE DECADES OF RESEARCH.

YOU HAVE SPOKEN TO THE LEGISLATURE, COMMUNITY GROUPS,  WRITTEN REPORTS FOR EVERYONE FROM THE NEW MEXICO INTERSTATE  STREAM COMMISSION TO THE UNITED NATIONS.

IF I HAD TO PICK ONE PERSON IN THE STATE WHO I THINK HAS DONE  THE MOST TO EDUCATE US ALL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS  IMPACT, THAT WOULD REALLY BE YOU.

SO THANKS FOR BEING HERE WITH ME.

Gutzler: THAT IS ALL VERY KIND FOR YOU TO SAY.

AND I APPRECIATE IT.

FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, I WAS TRYING TO  DO MY JOB AND SO TAXPAYERS OF NEW MEXICO PAID ME FOR A  QUARTER CENTURY TO HOLD THIS TITLE CALLED PROFESSOR AND TRY  TO DO RESEARCH AND EDUCATE PEOPLE AND THAT IS WHAT WE TRY  TO DO.

Laura: LET'S START OUR  CONVERSATION TODAY WITH WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN HERE IN  NEW MEXICO.

CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG HERE,  WE WERE THREE DEGREES WARMER  THAN WE WERE IN THE 1970'S.

Gutzler: SOMETHING ALONG  THAT.

ALL THESE ESTIMATES ARE FAIRLY  ROUGH.

THEY ARE NOT PRECISE BUT THAT  IS A PRETTY GOOD NUMBER.

SO, THAT IS WARMER ENOUGH FOR  PEOPLE TO FEEL IT.

RIGHT?

PEOPLE THAT HAVE LIVED HERE FOR A FEW DECADES   GENERALLY PERCEIVE THAT IT IS JUST NOT  QUITE THE SAME AS IT USED TO BE.

AND WE CAN POINT OUT ALL KINDS OF ANECDOTES ABOUT THAT.

I HAVE A PHOTO OF MY KIDS WHO WERE SMALL WHEN WE MOVED HERE  IN THE MID 90'S, BUNDLED UP LIKE CRAZY, LIKE THEY WERE  WHEN WE LIVED IN BOSTON, TO GO TO THE BALLOON FIESTA.

AND YOU GENERALLY DON'T HAVE TO DRESS UP LIKE THAT ANYMORE  MORE OFTEN THAN NOT AND SO JUST THINGS LIKE THAT HAVE  REALLY CHANGED.

AND THERE ARE MANY MORE  QUANTITATIVE WAYS TO SHOW THAT AS WELL.

Laura: WHAT ARE SOME OF THOSE IMPACTS THAT WE HAVE  SEEN ON THE LANDSCAPE IN THE PAST FEW DECADES THAT ARE  RELATED TO THIS WARMING?

Gutzler: WE SEE THINGS LIKE  INCREASED INTENSITY OF WILDFIRES WHICH ALSO  ILLUSTRATES AN IMPORTANT POINT ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE WHICH IS  THAT OFTEN THE BIG IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE  AREN'T STAND-ALONE IMPACTS.

CLIMATE CHANGE ACTS AS AN  ADDED STRESS ON SYSTEMS THAT  ARE ALREADY STRESSED FOR OTHER REASONS, FOR EXAMPLE, BECAUSE  OF FOREST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES.

WE HAVE SEEN BIG DROUGHTS, WHICH ARE OF NATURAL  OCCURRENCE.

SINCE I STARTED WORKING HERE A HUGE BODY OF  RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT HUGE DROUGHTS ARE ENDEMIC TO THE  SOUTHWEST AND HAVE BEEN FOR 1000 YEARS BUT NOW WE THINK  THAT THE IMPACTS OF THOSE DROUGHTS ARE MORE SEVERE  BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP.

SO DROUGHT THAT WE ARE IN, BY SOME MEASURES, IS NOT THE MOST  SEVERE DROUGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION  DEFICITS, YET WE ARE SETTING RECORDS FOR LOW STREAM FLOWS.

AND THAT IS BECAUSE OF THIS ADDED AFFECT OF WARMER  TEMPERATURES.

Laura: CAN YOU LAY OUT FOR  US SOME OF THE FUTURE SCENARIOS THAT YOU SEE IN THE  DATA, WHETHER THAT IS THINGS LIKE RELATED TO STREAM FLOW  AND THE GILA RIVER AND KIND OF WHAT SOME OF OUR LANDSCAPES  MIGHT LOOK LIKE AND BE LIKE IN THE COMING DECADES DUE TO  WARMING?

Gutzler: THE REALLY BIG  IMPACTS THAT WE CAN PROJECT WITH CERTAINTY, NEAR  CERTAINTY, ARE THAT THE TEMPERATURE OUGHT TO CONTINUE  TO WARM UP BECAUSE WE THINK THAT THE PRINCIPLE DRIVER OF  THIS TEND IN TEMPERATURE IS INCREASING GREEN HOUSE GASES  AND THEY ARE STILL GOING UP.

AND IN THE SOUTHWEST, IN THE  ARID CLIMATE AND IN THE LATITUDE ZONE THAT WE ARE IN,  THAT IS -- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A GENERAL  TREND TOWARD ARIDITY, DRYER CONDITIONS.

THAT MEANS THAT OUR SNOW-FED RIVERS, LIKE THE GILA OR THE  RIO GRANDE OR THE PECOS, WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED  SNOWPACK, WHICH IS ANOTHER NEAR CERTAIN PROJECTION  ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

WE EXPECT ON AVERAGE LESS WATER FLOWING DOWN THE MAJOR  RIVERS AND LANDSCAPES DRYING OUT WITH EFFECTS ON VEGETATION  AND THAT CAN HAVE EFFECTS ON SOIL EROSION AND THINGS LIKE  THAT.

Laura: IN THINKING ABOUT,  SAY, ALBUQUERQUE WHERE WE ARE TODAY, WHAT KIND OF TIME FRAME  ARE WE LOOKING AT FOR KIND OF MAYBE SOME BIG VEGETATIVE OR  TEMPERATURE CHANGES?

Gutzler: PLENTY OF FOLKS  WOULD SAY WE ARE THERE AND SO REALLY WHAT I AM DESCRIBING IS  A CONTINUATION OF TRENDS THAT WE ALREADY SEE IN THE DATA.

WHAT MAKES THINGS A LITTLE BIT HARD IN TERMS OF BOTH PICKING  OUT LONG-TERM TRENDS IN EITHER LANDSCAPES OR WATER METRICS,  AND ALSO COMPLICATES PROJECTIONS INTO THE FUTURE,  IS THAT THESE TRENDS ARE SUPER IMPOSED ON ENORMOUS NATURAL  FLUCTUATIONS.

SO WE GO BACK AND FORTH AND  BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN WET DECADES OR MULTI-DECADAL  PERIODS AND DROUGHTS THAT CAN ALSO LAST FOR DECADES.

SO, IT IS HARD TO SAY THAT IN  A PARTICULAR YEAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS WILL LOOK LIKE  THIS, BECAUSE IN ADDITION TO THESE TRENDS TOWARD WARMER  CONDITIONS AND MORE ARID CONDITIONS, WE HAVE WET AND  DRY SPELLS THAT WE THINK OUGHT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FUTURE.

SO, PARSING THE DIFFERENT TIME SCALES OF VARIABILITY AND  CHANGE ARE REALLY TRICKY.

AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.

SO, I EXPECT THAT WE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME  WET YEARS, JUST DUE TO NATURAL VARIABILITY.

AND THE CHALLENGE FOR POLICYMAKERS IS TO NOT LET  DOWN OUR GUARD AND ELIMINATE PLANNING TOWARD A DRYER AND  WARMER FUTURE BECAUSE WE JUST GOT SOME RELIEF FROM NATURAL  VARIABILITY THAT MIGHT BE SHORT LIVED.

Laura: I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT CLIMATE SCIENTISTS  HAVE KIND OF BEEN PUT THROUGH THE RINGER OVER THE PAST FEW  DECADES FROM, YOU KNOW, OUTRIGHT CLIMATE DENIERS TO  SORT OF PEOPLE WHO MAYBE THINK LIKE, YEP, CLIMATE CHANGE IS A  PROBLEM BUT I AM JUST GOING TO IGNORE IT.

I AM JUST GOING TO GO ABOUT MY REGULAR DAY, IT IS TOO MUCH TO  THINK ABOUT.

BUT I THINK IT HAS BEEN  ENCOURAGING IN THE PAST FEW YEARS, THE NUMBER OF AMERICANS  WHO UNDERSTAND HOW CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING, RISING,  AS WELL AS THE NUMBER OF AMERICANS WHO SAY THEY TRUST  CLIMATE SCIENTISTS.

I AM CURIOUS FROM YOUR  PERSPECTIVE IF YOU HAVE SEEN THAT INCREASED TRUST PLAY OUT  IN TERMS OF WHAT WE ARE WILLING TO DO IN TERMS OF  POLICY OR PLANNING OR MAKING CHANGES?

Gutzler: I HAVE PERCEIVED MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE  ABILITY OF THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY TO LAY OUT WHAT HAS  BEEN HAPPENING AND WHY AND WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN  THE FUTURE.

I AM NOT CONVINCED THAT TRUST  EXTENDS TO WHAT WE MIGHT DO ABOUT IT.

IN PART BECAUSE WE HAVE TO BE HONEST WHEN WE MAKE OUR  PROJECTIONS THAT THEY EXTEND INTO THE FUTURE, FARTHER INTO  THE FUTURE THAN MOST PEOPLE ARE COMFORTABLE AND CERTAINLY  MOST POLICYMAKERS ARE COMFORTABLE DEALING WITH.

AND THAT THEY ARE FUZZY.

THERE IS EVEN LESS TRUST IN  OUR ABILITY TO TRANSITION TOWARD A FUTURE ASSOCIATED  WHERE OUR ENERGY IS DRIVEN BY RENEWABLES AWAY FROM FOSSIL  FUELS.

I THINK THERE IS VERY LITTLE  TRUST IN HOW THAT IS GOING TO WORK, WHO IS GOING TO BE AN  ECONOMIC LOSER AND WHETHER THAT WILL ALL WORK.

I AM QUITE CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK EVENTUALLY BUT I AM NOT  AT ALL CONFIDENT THAT WE CAN MEET ANY KIND OF SHORT TERM  GOALS ABOUT REDUCING EMISSIONS OR MAKING A SEAMLESS  TRANSITION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS BECAUSE THAT IS HARD AND  THE PATH TO GET FROM OUR CURRENT ENERGY ECONOMY TO ONE  BASED ON RENEWABLES IS VERY FUZZY.

AND PEOPLE DON'T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT TRUST THAT WE CAN  DO IT WITHOUT PAIN.

Laura: SO, I ALWAYS GET  SURPRISED.

I AM LIKE, GOVERNOR JUST HAD  HER STATE OF THE STATE ADDRESS AND DIDN'T MENTION CLIMATE  CHANGE OR WATER PLANNING, AND I AM ALWAYS SURPRISED OR  ANOTHER LEGISLATIVE SESSION GOES PAST AND THE LEGISLATURE  DOESN'T REALLY TAKE ON WATER PLANNING OR CLIMATE IN TERMS  OF MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION BUT IT SOUNDS LIKE MAYBE  YOU'RE NOT VERY SURPRISED.

Gutzler: I AM NOT SURPRISED  BECAUSE IT IS HARD AND THERE AREN'T EASY SOLUTIONS FOR  WATER PLANNING, FOR EXAMPLE.

I TOTALLY APPLAUD THE ISC'S  EFFORT TO PUT TOGETHER A 50-YEAR WATER PLAN BUT PUTTING  ONE TOGETHER AND HAVING IT IMPLEMENTED WITH REAL CHANGES  ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT REALLY ADDRESS THE RISKS THAT WE FACE  IN TERMS OF OUR WATER FUTURE IS HARD.

IT IS POLITICALLY REALLY HARD AND SO IT DOESN'T SURPRISE ME  TOO MUCH ANYMORE WHEN ELECTED OFFICIALS WHO NEED TO FACE  VOTERS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANT TO PUT REAL  CHANGE INTO PLACE IN TERMS OF POLICY THAT PEOPLE THINK IS  ASSOCIATED WITH SOMETHING THAT MIGHT HAPPEN IN THE LONG-TERM.